Opinion Poll: Polls Show Dead Heat, Volatility

TORONTO, July 23 — The first opinion polls of the general election show a dead heat between the Conservative and Liberal parties, with a highly volatile electorate. The Conservatives are marginally in the lead with 31.3% of decided voters nationwide, followed by the Liberals at 30.3%, the New Democrats at 20.2%, the Greens at 10.9% and the Bloc Quebecois at 7.4%.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois numbers translate into a substantial lead of 34.7% versus the Conservatives’ 22.9% and the Liberals 22.0%. The New Democrats and the Greens follow the pack with 11.3% and 9.0% respectively.

“The Conservatives and Liberals have so far failed to move the electorate during the past two years, and our numbers are showing a slight increase in popularity of the smaller parties,” says pollster Allan Reid. “At this time, this election is just too close to call.”

The three main parties each have centres of strength across the country. The Liberals lead Atlantic Canada with 47.4% of the vote to the Conservatives’ 23.4%, the NDP’s 20.1% and the Greens’ 9.1% while the Conservatives lead in Alberta with 47.9% of the vote, with the Liberals and the NDP far behind at 20% each. The NDP have a narrow lead in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, polling 32.3% of decided voters to the Conservatives’ 30% and the Liberals’ 27.7.

The dead heat continues in the battleground of Ontario, with the Conservatives’ just two points behind the Liberals at 34% and 36% respectively. The NDP and the Greens round out these numbers with 20% and 10%. The race is even tighter in BC, with the three main parties polling around 28%, and the Green Party placing strong at 16%.

But pollster Allan Reid warns that these numbers will likely move, pointing to a high number of undecideds as a sign of a very volatile electorate. “A third of all respondents refused to pick any party as their choice,” says Reid, “but they still described themselves as likely voters. That’s a huge pool of votes for any of the parties to pick up on.”

These numbers are based on a weighted sample of 3040 households across Canada and is considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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       Atlantic   Quebec    Ontario   Man/Sask   Alberta     BC     National    
Cons    23.38%    22.92%    33.97%     30.00%    47.92%    28.00%    31.34%
Libs    47.40%    21.99%    36.03%     27.69%    20.00%    27.67%    30.26%
NDP     20.13%    11.34%    20.00%     32.31%    20.00%    28.33%    20.19%
Grns     9.09%     9.03%    10.00%     10.00%    12.08%    16.00%    10.85%
Bloc     0.00%    34.72%     0.00%      0.00%    0.00%      0.00%     7.37%

Und     30.00%    40.00%    35.00%     35.00%    20.00%    25.00%    33.03%