Opinion Poll: Race Tightens to Dead Heat, Volatility Increases

TORONTO, July 30 — One week into the election has seen a narrowing of Stephen Harper’s already tenuous lead. National polls have the Conservative Party essentially tied with the Liberals, holding a statistically insignificant lead of 30.5% to the Liberals’ 30%. The New Democratic Party is in third place with 20.9% of decided voters, followed by the Greens at 10.8% and the Bloc Quebecois at 7.8%

In Quebec, the Bloc’s 7.8% support translated into a substantial lead of 35.9%, with the Conservatives marginally ahead of the Liberals in the fight for second place, at 22.5 and 21.3% respectively. The NDP and the Greens are far behind, with 12.5% and 7.9% of decided voters respectively.

But pollster Allen Reid cautioned against taking these numbers as given, noting an exceptionally high number of undecided voters, ranging from 23.3% of respondents in Alberta to 40% of respondents in Quebec. “Voters are having a hard time choosing between Stephane Dion and Stephen Harper,” says Reid. “It seems that many voters are taking a wait-and-see attitude. I suspect we won’t see any major shifts in opinion until after the leaders’ debates.”

The results were essentially static across the country. In the Atlantic provinces, Conservative support dropped by a whole percentage point, from 23.4% last week to 22.1% today, while NDP support increased from 20.1% to 21.4%. Liberal and Green support stayed the same at 47.4 and 9.1% respectively. In Ontario, Conservative and Liberal support dropped marginally, while the NDP and the Greens posted modest gains.

Over 3000 Canadians across the country were polled and these results are considered accurate to within three percent, nineteen times out of twenty.

30/07/08      Atlantic  Quebec  Ontario  Man/Sask Alberta     BC    National          
Conservatives  22.08%   22.45%   32.93%   30.00%   46.96%   27.93%   30.51%   
Liberals       47.40%   21.30%   36.00%   27.69%   20.00%   27.24%   30.01%
New Democrats  21.43%   12.50%   20.67%   32.31%   20.43%   28.62%   20.85%
Greens          9.09%    7.87%   10.40%   10.00%   12.61%   16.21%   10.83%
Bloc Quebecois  0.00%   35.88%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%    7.80%

Sample Size      220      720     1200      200      300      400     3040